This is only a test
America’s adversaries have taken the measure of the new admin and are just about ready to test our resolve. I do not see a good outcome here.
Capital Thinking · Issue #825 · View online
Every new administration must find its footing with our adversaries. Amongst those adversaries today are China, Russia, and Iran.
Our new administration is struggling to find its own bearings at the same time. This is not only normal, but it is also confusing because the positions of the new admin are radically different versus its predecessor.
This normal transition, the unusually aggressive posture of China, Russia, and Iran taken together with the internal policy confusion makes for a fine kettle of fish.
The Test – Russia, China, Iran – Go To War?
China and Iran have just cozied up to each other with a 25-year alliance.
How will this resolve itself?
Our adversaries will test us — plain and simple, no surprise there. They are currently testing us right now.
The Chinese
The Chinese find themselves globally in an awkward position:
1. The Chinese Virus has put them in the spotlight in an unflattering posture. Any goodwill the Chinese may have enjoyed has been consumed in their intransigence in the Chinese Virus saga. The Chinese do not like talking about the China Virus.
2. The Chinese were picked some six years ago to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, a matter of considerable prestige to China. Sort of an invite to sit at the Big Kids Table at Thanksgiving.
There is a move afoot to boycott the Beijing Olympics based on China’s record of genocide in regard to the Uyghurs, child/slave/prisoner labor, organ harvesting, the suppression of freedom in Hong Kong, the continuing controversy surrounding the dozen islands/atolls militarized by the Chinese in the South China Sea.
3. Since 1949, Red China has had an insane fixation on pretending that Taiwan is a renegade province of China and that any member of the world who acknowledges that Taiwan is the remainder of the Republic of China, China’s adversary in the revolution, has committed an affront of monumental proportions.
It really is sophomoric. Of course Taiwan is not part of China. Sorry.
The predecessor American administration sold weapons to Taiwan which Red China took poorly.
Recent Chinese utterances on Taiwan — from the government of China, from the Chinese Communist Party, from the Chinese diplomatic corps, and from the Chinese military — have become increasingly bellicose and coordinated.
This quick summary is the flavor of the US – China relationship with the leader of China, President for Life Xi Jinping, looking at the new admin and wondering how it will behave versus its predecessor.
Xi has been in power since March 2013 and has worked with/against three American administrations (Obama, Trump, Biden) and has personally dealt with President Biden when Vice President Biden had the China portfolio under President Obama.
It is my working hypothesis that if the Chinese are thwarted in any manner in regard to the Beijing 2022 Olympics, if the world boycotts the Olympics, if Chinese sensibilities are in any way bruised, the Chinese will move militarily against Taiwan.
The Russians
The Russians stole Crimea with an almost bloodless coup de main. The then current admin denied Ukraine deadly military support opting for bandages and body bags.
The Trump admin provided Ukraine with deadly anti-tank and anti-attack helicopter weapons that have put the Ukraine on a decent footing against the Russian incursion on its eastern border. The Russians and the Ukrainians — pretty decent soldiers and army — have been at war since the Crimea incident.
So what?
Photo credits: Courtesy of theBig Red Car